Probability theory - spot yield for hopping versus continuous reception?

Bruce KX4AZ

I wonder if anyone has ever done any rough calculations using the WSPR database to do some predictive calculations around the spot numbers that could be achieved in a continuous decoding (i.e. with a KiwiSDR) versus hopping (i.e. a WSJT-x software with a single frequency receiver).

My current  'KX4AZ/T' KiwiSDR site is working reasonably well with WSPR decoding, but I don't like to tie up all 8 of the Kiwi channels with the wsprdaemon.  Recently I have had it decoding on just 4 channels (80/40/30/20).  Now and then I'll turn on a separate Airspy HF+ Discovery  "hopper" receiver for the less active WSPR frequencies...but I've always wondered about how many spots I am missing with the hopper receiver.  Seems like the WSPR database would be an excellent tool to use for constructing some predictive calculations, but I can't quite wrap my mind around the mathematics & probability calculations it would require.  And for all I know this has already been done long ago.

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