Topics

Russian demographic crisis

Dan Daast
 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-population-decline-labor-oreshkin/28760413.html

joatsimeon
 

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.



From: Dan Daast <paradoqz@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Thu, Sep 28, 2017 9:24 pm
Subject: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

joatsimeon
 

Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.



-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Daast <paradoqz@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Thu, Sep 28, 2017 9:24 pm
Subject: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Gaye Thomas
 

????

TFR's



From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 2:08 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.



-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Daast <paradoqz@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Thu, Sep 28, 2017 9:24 pm
Subject: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Kier Salmon
 

On Sep 29, 2017, at 7:04 AM, Gaye Thomas via Groups.Io <gayethomas37064@...> wrote:

????

TFR's



-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 2:08 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place. The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years. And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.



-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Daast <paradoqz@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Thu, Sep 28, 2017 9:24 pm
Subject: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-population-decline-labor-oreshkin/28760413.html

Sean F Gallagher
 

Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 12:08 AM, joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...> wrote:
Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.


 

Probably both. One child had a huge effect, but the Chinese have also been massively urbanizing which also lowers TFR. 

OTOH, in China's case they started with way more people than they needed and most of them doing very unproductive manual labor. So the drop in TFR isn't necessarily a bad thing for them, as long as they go back around 2 per woman in 50 years or so. 

For Russia it is much more of a problem, since they have a smaller population but a large territory, and most of their labor force was already more productive. There's not a mass of Russian peasantry do draw on these days. 


On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 10:24 am, Sean F Gallagher wrote:
Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.

joatsimeon
 

Total Fertility Rate:  basically, how many children a woman has over her reproductive lifetime.


From: Gaye Thomas via Groups.Io <gayethomas37064@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 8:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

????

TFR's



From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 2:08 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.



-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Daast <paradoqz@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Thu, Sep 28, 2017 9:24 pm
Subject: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

joatsimeon
 

It's become an entrenched choice, now.
Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.



From: Sean F Gallagher <faolan@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 11:24 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 12:08 AM, joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...> wrote:
Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.


joatsimeon
 

OTOH, in China's case they started with way more people than they needed and most of them doing very unproductive manual labor.
-- that well's about dry.



From: Andrew Gray <aggray@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 11:33 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Probably both. One child had a huge effect, but the Chinese have also been massively urbanizing which also lowers TFR. 

OTOH, in China's case they started with way more people than they needed and most of them doing very unproductive manual labor. So the drop in TFR isn't necessarily a bad thing for them, as long as they go back around 2 per woman in 50 years or so. 

For Russia it is much more of a problem, since they have a smaller population but a large territory, and most of their labor force was already more productive. There's not a mass of Russian peasantry do draw on these days. 

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 10:24 am, Sean F Gallagher wrote:
Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.

 

I'm not as concerned about China as I am about some other countries, like Japan. Economically it's probably in their best interests. 
The risk is more political -- they can't sustain the massive growth they've been having. Even if much of it is illusionary funded by government spending, the people in China have been seeing a massive growth in their personal wealth and it's created an expectation of a constant boom. Even a move to a steady state mature and developed economy would be a shock to the public.


On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 12:31 pm, joatsimeon wrote:

-- that well's about dry.

 

Most developed countries are in that boat, less severe than Russia, but all the generations since the boomers have been smaller in most of them. Fun times...

Dan Daast
 

Could be worse. We could be living out one of the scenarios fed to us by the doomsayers committed to the overpopulation theory...


On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 01:33 pm, John Hamill wrote:
Most developed countries are in that boat, less severe than Russia, but all the generations since the boomers have been smaller in most of them. Fun times...

Tarl Neustaedter
 

On 2017-Sep-29 16:33 , John Hamill wrote:
Most developed countries are in that boat, less severe than Russia, but all the generations since the boomers have been smaller in most of them. Fun times...

United States and France are somewhat exceptions to that rule.

If you want to look at the population pyramids, try:

https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
  • Select population pyramid graph
  • Select 2017 (should already be selected)
  • Select your country in upper-right frame
  • Click "submit" in the lower-left.

For the U.S., the decrease per five-year period is visible, but actually fairly small. Immigration pressures are such that minor tweaks in immigration policies can entirely overwhelm the TFR issues.

For France, the five-year periods were showing growth until this most recent one, which showed a slight drop. But France doesn't easily have the same immigration available to it, they'd have to recruit immigrants.

Germany looks terrible, but has stabilized over the past decade. Japan looks even more awful, and it's getting worse. They'll have to recruit from southeast Asia to find people to run their nursing homes. Russia had a horrible dip after the fall of communism, but has recovered since then - but then the last five years saw a dip. China plainly has a problem, but the last ten years have seen increases in birth rates each year, so it may not be terminal.



Dan Daast
 

Russian analysis is problematic. One has to decide how much faith to put in the official data.


On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 01:49 pm, Tarl Neustaedter wrote:
On 2017-Sep-29 16:33 , John Hamill wrote:
Most developed countries are in that boat, less severe than Russia, but all the generations since the boomers have been smaller in most of them. Fun times...

United States and France are somewhat exceptions to that rule.

If you want to look at the population pyramids, try:

https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
  • Select population pyramid graph
  • Select 2017 (should already be selected)
  • Select your country in upper-right frame
  • Click "submit" in the lower-left.

For the U.S., the decrease per five-year period is visible, but actually fairly small. Immigration pressures are such that minor tweaks in immigration policies can entirely overwhelm the TFR issues.

For France, the five-year periods were showing growth until this most recent one, which showed a slight drop. But France doesn't easily have the same immigration available to it, they'd have to recruit immigrants.

Germany looks terrible, but has stabilized over the past decade. Japan looks even more awful, and it's getting worse. They'll have to recruit from southeast Asia to find people to run their nursing homes. Russia had a horrible dip after the fall of communism, but has recovered since then - but then the last five years saw a dip. China plainly has a problem, but the last ten years have seen increases in birth rates each year, so it may not be terminal.

 

 

Sean F Gallagher
 

So when you use inflammatory words, like doomsayers, among friends, some of whom may agree with the overpopulation theories, does it cross your mind at all to mediate your language? Or do you try to irritate people?

Do you not agree that overpopulation will become a problem if somethings not done?

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 1:42 PM, Dan Daast <paradoqz@...> wrote:
Could be worse. We could be living out one of the scenarios fed to us by the doomsayers committed to the overpopulation theory...

James Proffer
 

On Fri, 2017-09-29 at 14:21 -0700, Sean F Gallagher wrote:
So when you use inflammatory words, like doomsayers, among friends, some of whom may agree with the overpopulation theories, does it cross your mind at all to mediate your language? Or do you try to irritate people?


Do you not agree that overpopulation will become a problem if somethings not done?


Faolan

Once upon a time that would have been a true statement.  Then the demographic transition happened and is still increasing.

.https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html

Frex: The fertility rate is Saudi Arabia is 2.11, effectively replacement rate.  Twenty years ago it was 6ish.

Gaye Thomas
 

It is happenig here.  My daughter wants no children, my nephew wants no children.  My best friend will have no grandchildren.

All were raised by working mothers.  I suppose cause and effect would get into mod pol.  I find the fact noteworthy tho.



From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 2:30 pm
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's become an entrenched choice, now.
Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.



From: Sean F Gallagher <faolan@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 11:24 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

Is this finally the effect of the "One Child" policy? Or do you think families are actually choosing not to have children as much, or at all in some cases.

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 12:08 AM, joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon@...> wrote:
Oh, and the number of Chinese children starting elementary school each year has dropped 25% in the past decade.

That's the thing about TFR's -- the effect is gradual but inexorable.


-----Original Message-----
From: joatsimeon via Groups.Io <joatsimeon=aol.com@groups.io>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 1:05 am
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

It's not the only place.  The number of Chinese turning 18 annually started dropping nearly 8 years ago and the labor force is declining by over 5,000,000 per year and rising -- down 20 million in the last few years.  And of those joining the market every year, over 40% are university graduates who won't do anything resembling manual labor and are reluctant to take even ordinary white-collar jobs.

It's amazing, really -- the Chinese peasantry, the largest social "immovable object" in human history, is melting away before our eyes.


Sean F Gallagher
 

I recognize that TFRs are changing, but that's only been after decades of people talking about overpopulation and influencing the changes that were needed. And yet this is still not going on everywhere. Almost all of Africa is still in 4+ and various parts of SE Asia are also well above replacement.

People who advocate against overpopulation are not doomsayers and saying they are, in what is supposedly a friendly forum, is one of the reasons that we have to be so strenuous about modpol.

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 2:36 PM, James Proffer <james@...> wrote:
On Fri, 2017-09-29 at 14:21 -0700, Sean F Gallagher wrote:
Once upon a time that would have been a true statement.  Then the demographic transition happened and is still increasing.

.https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html

Frex: The fertility rate is Saudi Arabia is 2.11, effectively replacement rate.  Twenty years ago it was 6ish.
_._,_._,_

 


Do you not agree that overpopulation will become a problem if somethings not done?
Faolan, I don't agree, because the evidence shown that 1) most national populations are in a declining mode and not a growing one, and 2) The ones that are still above replacement level (2.1 TFR) have been falling rapidly towards that level (note that most of them are in Africa, which might still have a problem - the rest of the world does not). Granted there will be an overhang as the boom generations age out, but eventually they will die and be replaced by smaller numbers. The only way to eliminate the 'overhang' population is mass death (probably murder), and I decline to support that.

I was a believer in Ehrlich's theories, but remember that they always came with a caveat - "If nothing changes".
But things did change - huge numbers of women planetwide chose to have fewer children.
Thus the 'Population Bomb' defused itself, or was defused by widespread action (take your pick of metaphor).

Different facts require different theories. Ehrlich is on the ash heap of history because his theories did not accurately predict the future behavior of the population he was studying. Newer theories better articulate what is actually happening; now we get to see what will in turn obsolete _them_.

Peter S.

From: Sean F Gallagher <faolan@...>
To: stirling <stirling@groups.io>
Sent: Fri, Sep 29, 2017 3:21 pm
Subject: Re: [stirling] Russian demographic crisis

So when you use inflammatory words, like doomsayers, among friends, some of whom may agree with the overpopulation theories, does it cross your mind at all to mediate your language? Or do you try to irritate people?

Do you not agree that overpopulation will become a problem if somethings not done?

Faolan

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 1:42 PM, Dan Daast <paradoqz@...> wrote:
Could be worse. We could be living out one of the scenarios fed to us by the doomsayers committed to the overpopulation theory...

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