Corps of Engineers Low Water Meeting, Thursday, may 20, 12:00-1:00


 

Lane County Parks passed this on to me. You gotta install a special program to attend. <sigh>

"PLEASE SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH OTHERS:

"As warm, dry weather continues, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District is seeing a worsening water year as it strives to refill 13 Willamette Valley reservoirs for the upcoming recreation season. The Willamette Valley Project depends on spring and early summer rainfall to refill and lack of precipitation is making it difficult to fill multiple reservoirs. To help explain the situation, Corps staff will host a virtual public information session, Thursday, May 20th from 12-1 p.m.

"The Corps invites the public to attend the session to learn more about current operations, future forecasts and potential impacts to the Willamette Valley System.

"Date: Thursday, May 20, 12-1 p.m.

"Link: https://usace1.webex.com/usace1/j.php?MTID=m09a0fd1d3f712d087fbb7fa821490011

[ https://preview.tinyurl.com/k85rcd46 ]

"Call: 1-844-800-2712 (US) (Call-in toll-free number)

"Access Code: 199 320 2562 #

"The Corps encourages questions but asks participants to send any questions in through the “chat” function in the WebEx during the call.

"Year-to-date precipitation across the Willamette was 76% of normal, as of May 17. The snowpack is 51% of median for the Willamette. Snowmelt helps keep reservoir elevations up in the summer if it lasts and matches outflows – but it only accounts for roughly 10% of the system’s storage.

"The Corps manages reservoir inflows based on a “rule curve,” or the authorized maximum elevation on a given day to balance flood risk and storage for authorized purposes. The Willamette Valley Systems’ reservoirs are kept lower in the winter to reduce downstream flooding and refilled in the spring to prepare for recreation and adequate flows for fish.

"Portland District encourages the public to visit its “teacup diagrams” before heading out to recreate. Willamette River Basin teacup diagram: https://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/nwp/teacup/willamette/ or http://pweb.crohms.org/nwp/teacup/willamette/.

"The Willamette Valley Project’s 13 reservoirs are currently 67% full. System-wide reservoir storage are 33% below the rule curve. Year-to-date precipitation in the Valley is 76% of normal. Willamette Basin snowpack is currently 51% of median."

--
John <jkohnen@boat-links.com>
Wind is to us what money is to life on shore. (Sterling Hayden)


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bryanbeachy@ymail.com
 

Something about the way the Corps manages that dam seems a little fishy to me.  In looking at their Project Status  https://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/dd/common/projects/www/frn.html  ,there's a scrollable table of inflow/outflow below the graphic.  In that table on 2021-05-14 23:00, inflow is recorded at 306 cubic ft per second. But just six hours earlier at 2021-05-14 17:00 through 17:45 inflow is recorded at negative 364 CFS.  And that's not an isolated recording.  How can the river above the lake run backwards?  And how are they measuring inflow?  I wonder if they ever give dam tours to the public and explain what they're doing down there.


Jove Lachman-Curl
 

We just need to build a secret dam up coyote creek, and hold the water back, so we can let it out in May when they're panicking that they're 5ft shy of full.
Probably illegal in 100 ways, but it would work.


On Thu, May 20, 2021 at 8:33 AM bryanbeachy@... via groups.io <bryanbeachy=ymail.com@groups.io> wrote:
Something about the way the Corps manages that dam seems a little fishy to me.  In looking at their Project Status  https://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/dd/common/projects/www/frn.html  ,there's a scrollable table of inflow/outflow below the graphic.  In that table on 2021-05-14 23:00, inflow is recorded at 306 cubic ft per second. But just six hours earlier at 2021-05-14 17:00 through 17:45 inflow is recorded at negative 364 CFS.  And that's not an isolated recording.  How can the river above the lake run backwards?  And how are they measuring inflow?  I wonder if they ever give dam tours to the public and explain what they're doing down there.


 

And nobody'd notice a big reservoir up Coyote Creek? <g>

I've wondered about how they get the "inflow" to flow backwards, too...

On 5/20/2021 9:31 AM, Jove wrote:
We just need to build a secret dam up coyote creek, and hold the water back, so we can let it out in May when they're panicking that they're 5ft shy of full.
Probably illegal in 100 ways, but it would work.
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John <jkohnen@boat-links.com>
If you can't say anything good about someone, sit right here. (Alice RooseveltLongworth)
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I asked. Those odd readings are just artifacts of an automated recording system. Ignore them and pay attention to the water level and outflow.

BTW, we're screwed. :o(

On 5/20/2021 8:33 AM, Bryan B wrote:
here's a scrollable table of inflow/outflow below the graphic.  In that table on 2021-05-14 23:00, inflow is recorded at 306 cubic ft per second. But just six hours earlier at 2021-05-14 17:00 through 17:45 inflow is recorded at negative 364 CFS.  And that's not an isolated recording.  How can the river above the lake run backwards?  And how are they measuring inflow?  I wonder if they ever give dam tours to the public and explain what they're doing down there.
--
John <jkohnen@boat-links.com>
The days pass happily with me wherever my ship sails. (Joshua Slocum)
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Here's a video of the presentation. Unfortunately, it doesn't show the Chat, where some questions were answered:

https://youtu.be/cB3TIaYODxw

I plucked a couple of graphs for Fern Ridge from the presentation and enlarged them:

http://www.boat-links.com/images/FR-May-2021-Predictions.png

On the left chart, 2015 was considered a bad water year. 2020 was worse. 2021 looks like it's gonna be as bad.

On the right you can see the results of prediction models run yesterday. The colored line is their best guess from what they saw in their crystal ball. The actual level will most likely be between the two, wilder, black guesses.

On 5/20/2021 1:05 PM, John Kohnen wrote:
...
BTW, we're screwed. :o(
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An optimist may see a light where there is none, but why must the pessimist always run to blow it out? (René Descartes)
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