Re: Thursday lunch
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I know this isn't about boats, but it is about meeting for boating activities. I feel compelled to send a short email about this.
Most of you are older chaps and in a vulnerable category. Corona virus is on the loose in the public in Lane county. We don't know how many cases there are because they're only testing the sickest patients who have lung symptoms. We had our first death in Oregon a couple days ago. Because we're short of testing in the US the "confirmed cases" number isn't worth anything.
Based on the math of how quickly this virus spreads, and how long it takes to die, we can calculate that for every death we likely have 800 cases in the community. We had our first death today in lane county, so we likely have hundreds of cases loose in Lane county alone.
The UK has advised all persons over 70 to self quarantine for the next 4 months.
I have had my grandparents agree to self quarantine and to let me know when they need groceries.
I've even stopped kissing my girlfriend, or close contact because we live separately and both have house mates and both have older folks in our family in our lives.
My company said last week "all who can work from home will". And today have announced a 4 week layoff..
My dance class is canceled, and my seminar class is canceled. My friends birthday is canceled.
The virus lives on hard surfaces for 3 days, fabric and cardboard for 1 day, and in the air after sneeze or cough for 3 hours.
I would recommend you take the hand hygiene seriously, and I would recommend you don't meet up for lunch.
If you meet up with anyone I would recommend open air (there is increasing evidence that it's airborne for 1-3 hours after a cough), and a 6 ft radius.
Most transmissions are coming from people with no symptoms due to the 10 day infectious incubation.
Below are a couple of the best things I've read on it.
Be well, be safe.
If you look at the below image graph from last week, we are following the exact same trajectory as Italy. We have 8000 cases today. So we are in fact accelerating faster than Italy.
The second image is from the above Medium article.
If we overwhelm our healthcare system our death rate will be closer to 5%, not 1%, this is due to the fact that 5% of patients need professional help with breathing to survive.
I encourage you all to help make this curve as flat as possible. A friend of mine said it best " Don't change your behavior to not catch it. Behave like you have it and do your best to not infect others".
Everything we know indicates that we are at the beginning of this epidemic and it will take many months. Everything we can do as individuates to slow the rise of the curve will save lives.
Anyone is welcome to contact me for more information about this.
Good luck to all.