"Why Ukraine may embrace China's peace plan"
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John Reimann
Here is a pessimistic article on the perspectives for the war. I've said for some time now that the situation could degenerate into one that has some similarities to that of the West Bank. It would be different in some ways but similar in others. That, essentially, is what this article argues. I don't think Zelensky can formally accept something like that, but informally it may become so. The one issue that the author does not consider is the issue of morale inside the Russian military. There are already reports of Russian troop desertions and even of gun battles between Russian troops. Who knows how that could develop under the pressure of a Ukrainian offensive? from what I understand the author is a conservative. We know that in the US there is a wing of the strategists for the US capitalists who argue for something like what this writer calls for. If this is what happens, it will be a serious setback to the world working class. It will strengthen the forces Putin has gathered round his regime - the far right and even fascist forces globally. “Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” Felicity Dowling Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook |
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Marv Gandall
"Ukraine was uncharacteristically tight-lipped about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile visit to Moscow this week, watching on as Russia rolled out the red carpet for China’s leader and waiting for its turn to have an audience with Xi. "Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Chinese president were reportedly set to have a telephone call after the Sino-Russian meeting but there has been no further updates on this and, when asked Tuesday about a possible call between the leaders, Zelenskyy said “nothing specific [has been decided]; we don’t yet have a confirmation.” "Having been uncharacteristically tight-lipped about Putin and Xi’s meeting, Zelenskyy responded Tuesday by saying that Kyiv had “invited” China to participate in a Ukrainian-devised peace formula to end the war, but that it was still waiting for a response. “We offered China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula. We passed over our formula across all channels. We invite you to dialogue. We are waiting for your answer,” Zelenskyy told a press conference Tuesday, adding: “We are receiving some signals, but there are no specifics yet.” From: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/23/ukraine-waits-for-its-moment-with-chinas-xi-but-will-kyiv-be-heard.html |
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David Walters
I think there are "good" diplomatic reasons for both China and Ukraine's stand toward each other as of now. Ukraines diplomatic caste are not idiots. Everything is fluid and they probably get and understand China's long and generally positive relationship with Russia even where they compete (Central Asia, for example). Here is something that I found on the American Enterprise Institutes web site:
In the same year, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps bought 9% of Ukraine's famously fertile farmland, equal to 5% of the country's total territory, with a 50-year lease. (In 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Chinese company over human-rights abuses.)So this makes China one of the largest land owners, all of it agricultural, in Ukraine today. China likely doesn't want to lose this which is why it has sort only leaned, but not gone totally in, with Russia in this war. I think the Ukraine/China thing will play out quite slowly. David |
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Michael Meeropol
As some comrades know, I am partial to Indochina War analogies ---- I know many disagree but I will re-summarize before taking the "next step" in the analogy -- THe Ukrainians are the Vietnamese--- fighting for their nation The Russians are the American imperialists --- seeking to impose their will on a nation The AMericans and NATO are "like" the Soviets and Chinese during the Indochina Wars --- mostly interested in their own national interests while making "noise" about "Socialist Solidarity" (the US version is "the international cause of DEMOCRACY" {ugh!]) THe VIetnamese fought on until the AMericans tired of the "endless war" (which if I remember correctly, the editors of the MOnthly Review argued that "endless war" was actually the goal of the US ruling class once it was clear that massive bombing would not deter the Vietnamese. THat was because from an imperialist perspective they "couldn't" lose or the entire imperial system would be in danger ---- and let's remember the "loss" of Angola and Mozambique and the "danger" of losing Portugal in the mid 1970s ---) SO WHY DID THE US "GIVE UP"? -- because the army was falling apart and domestic opposition made it impossible for NIXON to fight the war the way Johnson had ... Sorry for being repetitious -- NOW --- my new proposal is RUSSIAN MILITARY DISINTEGRATION might be exactly analogous to what the US experienced --- YES, Putin is able to suppress domestic opposition much better than the US ruling class in the 1960s and into the 1970s --- INTERESTINGLY, what gave Nixon more "space" to try and work out a "face saving" exit was the replacement of the draft ----I don't think the Russian state can afford to do that --- Nixon and Kissinger (based on Rusti Eisenberg's phenomenal new book) tried to get the Soviets and Chinese to help them "get out" by having them pressure the Vietnamese. Maybe the reverse could happen in the Ukrainian situation --- CHINA could pressure Russia to get out --- or at least get out "enough" so that it will be worth-while for the Ukrainians to agree to something less than total victory. The Chinese certainly do not want to see Ukraine destroyed. The key actor -- just as in Indochina -- are the Ukrainians --- anyone who believes in self determination must stand in solidarity with them even though the prospect of ENDLESS WAR means death and destruction for them for years to come. (Remember, the VIetnamese had to fight from approximately 1962 --- when Kennedy invaded Vietnam --- till final victory in 1975 ---- Can the Ukrainian people withstand the kind of war of attrition that the current struggle might degenerate to for --- say --- ten years? Is there a "better way" as people like Chomsky keep insisting? MY proposed conclusion to all this questioning is that the Ukrainians and ONLY the Ukrainians can answer that. Just as the Soviets and Chinese deferred to the Vietnamese (after pressuring them at Geneva in 1954 to accept "half a loaf") those of us in the international solidarity movement have to support them ....) THis is of course tricky because we DON'T want to support American militarists who see this war as a bonanza for the military industrial complex --- So the international solidarity movement has to walk a fine line. (Meanwhile, the "peace" movement in the US needs to be careful not to fall into the pro-Putin camp --- again a difficult fine line.) I REMAIN IMPRESSED BY THOSE WHO ARE TRYING TO WALK BOTH THESE LINES --- especially those in Ukraine trying to do that. Sorry to reiterate this --- BUT IT'S GODDAM COMPLICATED. (and sorry for some of the repetition re the analogy to Indochina) On Thu, Mar 23, 2023 at 3:42 PM John Reimann <1999wildcat@...> wrote:
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John Obrien <causecollector@...>
It is not too complicated -
Putin wants no Ukraine Nation
Ukrainians want their own nation
Many Ukrainians will resist and fight those who want to occupy their nation and lands
Russian forces are only fighting for those as Putin, who want larger empire
Seems only a matter of time when most Russians decide the costs to invade and occupy are too much
The morale of Russian forces will continue to lower.
The Ukrainians have no choice but to resist and fight against those trying to deny them life and whatever liberty
Seems history shows that invaders have generally been defeated overtime and left the lands they tried to control
because the inhabitants rejected their lands and themselves being under foreigner control,
The Putin led bombings and murder of Ukrainians, led to greater resistance by the Ukrainian People
Seems that more Ukrainians will become more personally involved in the physical resistance and through direct
aid to those resisting the Russian military. Daily life is changing for Ukrainians throughout that nation and more
are committing themselves to resist and expel the Putin led invaders
The Russian Antiwar Movement will likely grow and all genuine opposed to Putin, should support the growth
of that movement and the removal of Putin from power.
My own view - I support the arrest and conviction of Putin and his clique and that Russia pay for reparations.
Just as I also support the arrest and conviction of George Bush, Dick Cheney, Henry Kissinger for similar crimes.
John Reimann <1999wildcat@...>
Subject: [marxmail] "Why Ukraine may embrace China's peace plan"
Here is a pessimistic article on the perspectives for the war. I've said for some time now that the situation could degenerate into one that has some similarities to that of the West Bank. It would be different in some ways but similar in others.
That, essentially, is what this article argues. I don't think Zelensky can formally accept something like that, but informally it may become so.
The one issue that the author does not consider is the issue of morale inside the Russian military. There are already reports of Russian troop desertions and even of gun battles between Russian troops. Who knows how that could develop under the pressure of a Ukrainian offensive? _._,_._,_
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Dennis Brasky
I AGREE! On Thu, Mar 23, 2023 at 10:11 PM Michael Meeropol <mameerop@...> wrote:
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Michael, I think your analogy is mostly. You could have noted another example of a powerful military pulling out of a conflict because of troops rebelling and popular opposition growing to a foreign war was already demonstrated in the case of the Soviet Union's losing war against the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s, which was likely the main reason for the surprisingly rapid collapse of the USSR. My difficulty with applying this analogy to the Ukraine war and to agreeing that it must be the Ukrainians who decide how long to fight, is that Ukrainians don't really get to decide. Millions have already fled the country, not wanting to be or to have their children be random targets of Russian rockets and bombs or to be drafted and forced to fight the invading Russian army. (I picked up some Ukrainian 20-somethings in my rental car during a visit to Finland when I drove up to Lapland working on an article. They were college undergrads or graduate students --men and their girlfriends -- in that nordic country on temporary agricultural-worker visas picking wild blueberries for a commercial venture, ancf explained that they wanted to stay out of the country to avoid the draft, much like US draft dodgers in Canada during the Vietnam War.) And what kind of "democracy" can there be in the middle of a nationwide full-scale civil and national war anyhow? Especially in such a notoriously corrupt nation as Ukraine. (Just think how hard it was for us in the US to stop the US war in Vietnam or the US invasion of I It has to be acknowledged that on their own, Ukrraine cannot fight a decade-long or ever a few years' long war. They have to recieve tens or even hundreds of billions of free military aid to do it. So to be honest, the decision on how long Ukraine will fight for its sovereignty depends on how long the US and the NATO nations are willling to keep providing that military aid. And that is a shaky basis for a people to sign up for continued slaughter and terror on. I'm especially troubled by the reality that the policy makers in the US are looking positively at a drawn out and increasingly bloody conflict as a way to "bleed' Russia and destroy it's military and its economy, as a major stragegy to enhance US global dominance. This strategy has been openly declared. I cannot support such a strategy. Given that American aid to Ukraine is driven by such a self-interested blood-drenched strategy, I think saying Ukranians must be the ones to decide how long to fight for their sovereignty is hopelessly naive. On Thu, Mar 23, 2023 at 10:11 PM Michael Meeropol <mameerop@...> wrote:
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Marv Gandall
On Thu, Mar 23, 2023 at 07:11 PM, Michael Meeropol wrote:
THe Ukrainians are the Vietnamese--- fighting for their nation On Fri, Mar 24, 2023 at 08:58 AM, Dave Lindorff wrote:
My difficulty with applying this analogy to the Ukraine war and to agreeing that it must be the Ukrainians who decide how long to fight, is that Ukrainians don't really get to decide. Millions have already fled the country, not wanting to be or to have their children be random targets of Russian rockets and bombs or to be drafted and forced to fight the invading Russian army. (I picked up some Ukrainian 20-somethings in my rental car during a visit to Finland ... they wanted to stay out of the country to avoid the draf Although men between 18-60 are forbidden from leaving the country and are subject to the draft, thousands of highly skilled and educated Ukrainians with the means to evade conscription have found ways to do so, according to an article in today’s WSJ. The same situation prevails in Russia, as it did in the US during the Vietnam war. The Vietnamese and other peoples fighting genuine wars of national liberation did not have a privileged caste of draft-dodgers, and throughout exhibited a high level of civilian and military morale against vastly better equipped imperialist armies.
***************************************** A Year Into War, Ukraine Faces Challenges Mobilizing Troops
So far, Ukraine has managed to replenish its ranks. But some draft-age men are dodging mobilization. Matthew Luxmoore Wall Street Journal March 23 2023 DNIPRO, Ukraine—One Ukrainian paid almost $10,000 to flee the draft. Another has ignored five military summonses. A third avoids public spaces, fearing a military official will pounce and issue a call-up. When Russia invaded in February last year, thousands of volunteers lined up outside military recruitment centers. With many of them now dead or injured, Ukrainian authorities are scrambling to recruit replacements, often drafting those who have neither the desire nor the training to serve. The result is a growing number of fighting-age men who are attempting to evade service. So far, Ukraine has managed to replenish its ranks regularly, and has largely succeeded in holding back a monthslong Russian onslaught in the east as it awaits an influx of tens of thousands of fresh troops, many of them trained in the West, to drive its planned spring offensive. But while polls show that support for the defense effort remains high, the stock of willing volunteers now appears to be dwindling. Ukraine’s population is less than one-third the size of Russia’s, not accounting for the exodus of millions since the war began, and the kind of coercion used in Russia’s authoritarian system isn’t an option, Kyiv says. “We can’t do as Russia does and drive people to war with batons,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in February, three days after he renewed a decree on mobilization that makes reservists and most healthy men of fighting age eligible for call-up, in place since the war started. He said evasion of military service was a serious issue for Ukraine. The war has ravaged the professional armies of both Ukraine and Russia. Moscow responded last September with a mobilization of more than 300,000 men, and President Vladimir Putin has told Russians to prepare for a protracted war. Ukraine had a standing army of 260,000 when Russia invaded, and around 100,000 have been killed or wounded since then, according to Western estimates. The military banked until recently on patriotic fervor to swell those ranks. TV ads call on people to sign up and “defend what’s yours,” and billboards promote the Interior Ministry’s new Offensive Guard, with brigades named Anger and Spartan, and slogans urging reservists and experienced troops to “turn your rage into firepower.” Alongside the recruitment campaigns, Ukraine is increasingly relying on enlistment officers in military uniform handing out summonses in public spaces. The Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s domestic security and intelligence agency, said this month that it had closed down 26 Telegram channels that had been posting the locations and times where they were active. Receiving a summons in Ukraine means one of three things. You may simply be obliged to visit the recruitment office and confirm your details so authorities can update their databases. You may be subject to a medical checkup to assess your fitness for service. Or you may be required to pack your things and report for dispatch to an army base and training as a mobilized soldier. A 25-year-old operations manager at a cryptocurrency company in Kyiv has spent the past few months staying away from cafes, restaurants and other public spaces to avoid a call-up. He said he understands the need for mobilization but said he believes he does his part by contributing part of his income each month to the armed forces. “I’m pretty sure there are people with better ability to fight than me,” he said. “I’m not standing on the front lines shooting bad guys, but there are multiple front lines in this war.” Ruslan Bortnik, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, a think tank in Kyiv, said recent changes have discouraged many men from fighting. Last month, the military slashed bonuses for non-front-line personnel, calling it a cost-saving measure. A new law signed by Mr. Zelensky in January introduced harsher punishment for desertion and disobedience. There have been public scandals involving inappropriate call-ups and videos appearing to show men being roughed up by enlistment officers for refusing a summons. A disabled person was drafted in western Ukraine and pronounced fit for service despite having no hands. Another died on the front lines within a month of mobilization after 10 days of training, according to his relatives. Officials last week denied that untrained mobilized troops were being sent to battle unprepared, though they said the length of military training has been squeezed into a shorter period due to the war. “Kremlin propaganda continues to spread fakes and myths,” Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said in a Telegram post. Several soldiers interviewed by The Wall Street Journal near Bakhmut last week said they had been sent to battle within days of being called up. Others say they have received several weeks of training. Ignoring a summons can lead to criminal charges, though such cases are rarely punished. A 38-year-old welder in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region has received five summonses despite being a father of three children, caring for a mother who has cancer, and having health problems—all of which, he contends, are grounds for an exemption. He said he is challenging the call-up. Mykola Usenko, a 33-year-old factory worker from the same village who was mobilized in November, said it was better not to take people who don’t want to fight. “There are those who want to go that aren’t being called up,” said Mr. Usenko, who returned home this month to recuperate from injuries sustained at the front. “Call them up instead.” With men between the ages of 18 and 60 banned from leaving Ukraine, a small number have resorted to radical means to get out. The country’s border force frequently reports arrests, publishing stories of men cross-dressing as women, paying smugglers to whisk them out and one almost drowning as he tried to cross a river that runs along the border with Hungary this month. Ukrainian authorities say 66,374 men exited the country in 2022 using documents that allow volunteers and humanitarian-aid workers to leave, provided they come back within a specified period. More than 9,300 of them haven’t returned, the figures show. Various schemes have helped men flee, often costing thousands of dollars. They include buying a passenger seat alongside a long-haul truck driver leaving the country, bribing a doctor to issue an exemption, or enrolling at a university using fake documents, according to men interviewed by the Journal who have researched them. A 37-year-old native of Kyiv left Ukraine in February after paying close to $10,000 for three different schemes. He had owned a small business selling car parts in the Ukrainian capital but said it fell apart when the war started. The man said he first paid $2,500 for a student card from a Warsaw university, and an official spot on one of the university’s courses. But the day after he received the card in September, Ukraine said it was no longer allowing male students to leave. A friend had a contact at a draft office, and the businessman paid the contact $3,000 for documents listing him as unfit for service. The contact took his money and stopped answering his calls, he said. In the end, he acquired a document listing him as a volunteer aid worker, traveled to the Polish border at night and spent an hour convincing a guard that he wasn’t trying to flee before finally being allowed to enter Poland. “For the first time in a year I felt free, like my life again belonged to me,” he said in a phone interview from Canada, where he is building a new life with his wife. He left disillusioned with Ukraine’s struggle to overcome corruption and said he wasn’t willing to fight for change. There is still a steady flow of volunteers to the army, and many men willing to fight. Polls suggest public support for Ukraine’s defense effort hasn’t waned. But Mr. Bortnik said time might not be on Ukraine’s side as it continues to lose lives on the battlefield and discontent over conditions for soldiers grows. “The financial incentive has gone away. Some are thinking: ‘I can earn that money myself, without risking my life,’” he said. —Natalia Gryvnyak and Ievgeniia Sivorka contributed to this article. |
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John Obrien <causecollector@...>
To the ongoing propaganda posted on this List by those who want Putin to stay in power and defeat Ukraine:
Courage and Commitment To Beliefs - has been shown by many Ukrainians - including their president.
This is factual - and can not be said for the Putin Crowd whose objectives is to harm and sacrifice others.
for their goals of "greater empire"
Unlike some on this list whom keep demeaning all who do not want to engage in violence and wars -
I respect the pacifist moral views and do not criticize their actual beliefs.
While I am not a pacifist, I have respect for those whom truly are.
They are not the problem and should not be compared to the privileged militarists "Chicken Hawks"
as Rumsfield, Cheney, and so many of the wealthy rulers, who just want others to fight and get harmed.
I respected those Vietnamese who valiantly fought against the invaders of their lands (China, France, Japan, U. S.)
but to infer there were no pacifists among the Vietnamese, is just stating one's political views, but not reality.
Many Buddhist monks resisted nonviolently if one does not remember. I have committed physical violence
in self defense and against injustice, unlike some of those on this List, but respect those progressives nonviolence beliefs.
Being in comparable "comfortable privilege", to then demean others for not risking their lives -
seems have little understanding of others conditions, responsibilities and views. There is no ONE way that ALL
react in conflict. Many fortunately have in history resisted and sacrificed to oppose injustice and wrong.
I am in the history books for doing that, but respect pacifists who some are personal friends and others from
earlier time periods.
There are many Ukrainians who are both enduring and resisting the Putin invaders -
and this is the REALITY - whether Putin and his supporters and apologists do not like that.
The deceivers like to spew their views for propaganda intent to achieve their wishes.
It is the people "who in actual practice" defeat those blah blah wishes and the invaders causing harm
Glory to the Ukraine and its workng people, opposing and sacrificing, to oppose Putin and his forces.
Marv Gandall <marvgand2@...>
Sent: Saturday, March 25, 2023 1:53 PM
To: marxmail@groups.io <marxmail@groups.io> Subject: Re: [marxmail] "Why Ukraine may embrace China's peace plan" On Thu, Mar 23, 2023 at 07:11 PM, Michael Meeropol wrote:
THe Ukrainians are the Vietnamese--- fighting for their nation On Fri, Mar 24, 2023 at 08:58 AM, Dave Lindorff wrote:
My difficulty with applying this analogy to the Ukraine war and to agreeing that it must be the Ukrainians who decide how long to fight, is that Ukrainians don't really get to decide. Millions have already fled the country, not wanting to be or to have their children be random targets of Russian rockets and bombs or to be drafted and forced to fight the invading Russian army. (I picked up some Ukrainian 20-somethings in my rental car during a visit to Finland ... they wanted to stay out of the country to avoid the draf Although men between 18-60 are forbidden from leaving the country and are subject to the draft, thousands of highly skilled and educated Ukrainians with the means to evade conscription have
found ways to do so, according to an article in today’s WSJ. The same situation prevails in Russia, as it did in the US during the Vietnam war. The Vietnamese and other peoples fighting genuine wars of national liberation did not have a privileged caste of
draft-dodgers, and throughout exhibited a high level of civilian and military morale against vastly better equipped imperialist armies.
***************************************** A Year Into War, Ukraine Faces Challenges Mobilizing Troops
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Mark Baugher
On Mar 25, 2023, at 1:53 PM, Marv Gandall <marvgand2@...> wrote:Why are they only talking about men? Mark |
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John Reimann
Regarding Michael Meeropol's analogy to the US invasion of Vietnam: There are clear similarities but also some huge differences. The US invasion of Vietnam never was about annexation. No US president ever claimed nor acted as if Vietnam had no right to exist as an independent nation, that it always was and must be part of the United States. The other clear difference is that the US ruling class ruled and rules through "democratic" means whereas Putin does not. Combined together, this gives the US ruling class a good deal more flexibility than Putin has. If a president is deeply committed to a particular policy and the top circles of the ruling class are determined that a different policy is necessary, they can simply change that president (or at least they have been able to up until now). That's what they did when they got rid of Nixon (although it took a crisis to do so). It's what they did when they got rid of Bush and replaced him with Obama. In Russia things are entirely different. It's almost the reverse. If the president doesn't like top members of the ruling class, HE gets rid of THEM (as in falling out of windows). Nor do I think that Putin can survive an outright defeat in Ukraine - with defeat being defined as gaining no new territory through this invasion. Therefore, Putin cannot accept a withdrawal. The problem is that Zelensky at this time cannot accept any further Russian occupation on more Ukrainian territory than what they occupied prior to 2/24/22. Maybe not even that much. Maybe if the Ukrainian people are really crushed in the future that will change, but that's a different question. My point is that at this time I don't see how any peace plan can work. John Reimann “Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” Felicity Dowling Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook |
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Marla Vijaya kumar
Zelenski's puppet master had already shot down China's peace plan. So, no point in discussing it. Vijaya Kumar marla
On Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 10:03:04 AM GMT+5:30, Mark Baugher <mark@...> wrote:
> On Mar 25, 2023, at 1:53 PM, Marv Gandall <marvgand2@...> wrote: > > So far, Ukraine has managed to replenish its ranks. But some draft-age men are dodging mobilization. Why are they only talking about men? Mark |
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Michael Meeropol
John --- you are certainly right about the differences --- BUT, maybe the idea of a "peace plan" might work if CHINA puts her mind to it --- Unlike the west which will LOVE endless war as a big subsidy to the Military Industrial Compelx, China does NOT want to see Ukraine and/or the Russian economy destroyed --- they have too much going for them as the world economy begins to revolve around them (and climate change will hasten that change as the Chinese probably have a better way of surviving the crises coming over the next 80-100 years than most countries) It's a slim reed of hope ... of course. On Sun, Mar 26, 2023 at 10:09 AM John Reimann <1999wildcat@...> wrote:
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Michael Meeropol
No guarantee that that's just "on the face" posturing --- who knows what goes on behind the scenes ... On Sun, Mar 26, 2023 at 10:18 AM Marla Vijaya kumar via groups.io <marlavk=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
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Marv Gandall
On Sat, Mar 25, 2023 at 09:33 PM, Mark Baugher wrote:
Why are they only talking about men? Only men are banned from leaving the country and subject to the draft. |
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Charles Rachlis
Why are they talking only about men? John R has made the point many times that the popular response to the call to arms overwhelmed the recruitment offices. How, one may ask, does this jibe with the need of the capitalist state to close the borders for men wanting to leave as early as Feb 25 2022? And of course many have seen the violence of the conscription officers dragging civilians off reported the Radio Free Europe...no enemy of the dictatorship of capital in Ukraine. Violent Videos Raise Questions About Ukrainian Military Recruiters. This the the capitalist state that Oakland Socialists says workers should support both politically and militarily. Charles R "The working class and the employing class have nothing in common."
IWW founding congress opening statement
On Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 08:10:13 AM PDT, Marv Gandall <marvgand2@...> wrote:
On Sat, Mar 25, 2023 at 09:33 PM, Mark Baugher wrote: Why are they only talking about men? Only men are banned from leaving the country and subject to the draft. |
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Andrew Stewart
I think the Chinese efforts in both Ukraine and with the recent Saudi-Iranian deal should be seen as an attempt by Beijing to weaken American hegemony in Asia. However, a simple thought experiment demonstrates that this is not to be construed as so promising as some on the Left desire: |
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Chris Slee
Michael Meeropol says:
"...maybe the idea of a "peace plan" might work if CHINA puts her mind to it".
The recent Chinese statement is too vague to be called a peace plan:
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html
This statement begins
by saying:
"Universally
recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small,
strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. All parties should jointly uphold the basic norms governing international relations and defend international fairness and justice. Equal and uniform application of international
law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected".
This statement of support for "sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity" is very general. It says nothing specifically about Ukraine.
The Russian invasion certainly violated Ukraine's "territorial integrity". In March 2022 the vast majority of the world's states voted in the United Nations General Assembly for a resolution condemning the invasion and calling on Russia to withdraw. 141
countries voted in favour, 5 voted against and 35 abstained:
China was one of the countries that abstained. It seems that maintaining friendly relations with Russia was more important than the principles that China claims to support.
The Chinese statement calls for a ceasefire and negotiations. But a ceasefire without a commitment to the withdrawal of the Russian troops could lead to the permanent occupation of the territory seized by the Russian army. A ceasefire could also give time
for Russia to recruit and train more soldiers and rebuild its supplies of weapons in preparation for a new offensive.
China has offered to play a role in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. It is unclear what outcome China is hoping for from such negotiations.
An optimistic view would be that China has changed its approach, and that its support for "territorial integrity" means it will pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine (or at least from the areas seized since February 2022). A pessimistic view is that China
will pressure Ukraine to accept the permanent occupation of a large part of its territory.
Chris Slee |
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Dayne Goodwin
On Sun, Mar 26, 2023 at 8:09 AM John Reimann <1999wildcat@...> wrote:
I think Michael's Vietnam-Ukraine analogy is good for the basic framework of understanding the parallel between US imperialism in Vietnam and Russian imperialism in Ukraine. I doubt that John and i disagree about basics either but i beg to differ/quibble that "The US invasion of
Vietnam never was about annexation..." I think the U.S. invasion of Vietnam was about annexing southern Vietnam, south of the 17th parallel. Not openly annexing, since in the post-WWII era explicit colonialism was in political disrepute and no longer functional. After underwriting the bulk of the expense of the failed French eight-year war effort to reconquer Vietnam, the U.S. government reacted to the resultant 1954 Geneva Accords with initially covert subversion followed by open military intervention to keep southern Vietnam within the international U.S. empire. dayne On Sun, Mar 26, 2023 at 8:09 AM John Reimann <1999wildcat@...> wrote:
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Michael Meeropol
Followingup on Dayne's point
THERE is another aspect to US intervention -- that was to "destroy" the "demonstration effect" of a successful anti-colonial revolt. By intervening so that the Vietnamese (and Laotians and Cambodians) could not build their post-colonial societies as they choose, they made sure they would be unsuccessful economically (analogous to the US forever blockade of Cuba to make sure it wasn't a success) --- That was a reason to keep "south Vietnam" separate from the rest of VIetnam |
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