Re: Russia, not NATO, started the war; capitalists on all sides fuel fire (Boris Kagarlitsky)

John Reimann

I do think that as with any scientist, we have to start with some forward thinking, as in "what would happen if...." In this case, what would happen if Russia wins or loses the war.

In my opinion, if Putin had succeeded in his original war aim, which was to install a puppet regime in Kyiv and annex other parts of Ukraine, there would be a massive increase in overall repression. The left, such as it is (mainly the Social Movement) would either be on the run or in prison or dead. There would be a crack down on the working class similar to what we saw in Belarus (where Putin did take effective control). 

If the Russian forces simply maintain control over the territory they now occupy, then I think a bitter "low scale" war will continue for years to come. I think Putin will likely send tens or hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of Russian settlers into that territory. These will be politically similar to the Israeli settlers in the West Bank - an outright fascist force. I can't see how a bitter nationalist anti-Russian mood would not develop in what remains of Ukraine, one which would give far more power and support to Ukrainian fascism. This could well be turned on the ethnic Russian Ukrainians.

On the other hand, if the invasion is defeated at least to the extent that the Russian military is driven out of newly conquered territory in Donbas and the "land bridge" to Crimea, then I think there would be an initial celebratory mood. It would likely include an outburst of patriotic pride. But I find it difficult to see how at least a significant layer of the working class would not also turn to the feeling, "okay, we beat the Russians, now where's our share as workers?"

John Reimann

“Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” Felicity Dowling
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