For what it is worth ...when RPE was on Swansea Uni I cooud receive it 90% of the time at IO80KX51 5 M S of Taunton ..predicted pathloss 209dB. Single obstrucion at Willet Hill Somerset
The Camarthan QTH ..if I have it correct at IO71UU06 comes out at 229dB loss almost identical beam heading, with Willet Hill as the first obstruction but multiple obstructions on the GW.
I suspect that under rainscatter conditions that the beacon will appear but under flat conditions it will be silent on the 140 degree heading.
As a further comparison CCX which was a similar distance and path ..except that the beacon was high on a hill used to appear here under flat conditions about 3% of the time...path loss 219dB
The proof of the pudding will be when the beacon comes on line!