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Long-range forecast for Hutchinson for GPSL

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

​At the moment, it looks like pretty nice weather late next week for southern Kansas.  Highs Friday and Saturday should be around 80 and early-morning temps on Saturday around 60.  A cold front will push through sometime early Friday - ahead of the front it will be in the low 90s.  Surface winds would be northerly around 10-15 mph.

As a WAG, landings look to be to the northeast, maybe around Hillsboro.  Too early to get real specific, and a lot will depend on the timing of the cold front.

73 de Mark N9XTN

Jerry
 

I was going to start running predictions today but as Mark says, It is still too early.  As an experiment ran a prediction using each of the 4 forecast runs (00:00H, 06:00H, 12:00H, 18:00H).  They were all radically different directions.  The 12:00 forecast matched Mark's prediction.  The others were radically different.

About all we can say at this point is the balloons will probably go up and they will probably come down somewhere in Kansas (Except the floaters).

I will post all my predictions on a public dropbox folder here: GPSL2017_Predictions. Zack is also going to keep the latest on the GPSL site.




Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com



From: "Mark Conner mconner1@... [GPSL]"
To: GPSL list
Sent: Thursday, June 8, 2017 1:34 PM
Subject: [GPSL] Long-range forecast for Hutchinson for GPSL

 
​At the moment, it looks like pretty nice weather late next week for southern Kansas.  Highs Friday and Saturday should be around 80 and early-morning temps on Saturday around 60.  A cold front will push through sometime early Friday - ahead of the front it will be in the low 90s.  Surface winds would be northerly around 10-15 mph.

As a WAG, landings look to be to the northeast, maybe around Hillsboro.  Too early to get real specific, and a lot will depend on the timing of the cold front.

73 de Mark N9XTN


Mark Conner N9XTN
 

It was the 1200Z forecast I was looking at too.  I didn't compare earlier runs (probably should have) to see if that forecast of 60 on Saturday morning was a one-off or consistent.

- Mark

On Thu, Jun 8, 2017 at 7:17 PM, Jerry Gable <jerrygable@...> wrote:
I was going to start running predictions today but as Mark says, It is still too early.  As an experiment ran a prediction using each of the 4 forecast runs (00:00H, 06:00H, 12:00H, 18:00H).  They were all radically different directions.  The 12:00 forecast matched Mark's prediction.  The others were radically different.

About all we can say at this point is the balloons will probably go up and they will probably come down somewhere in Kansas (Except the floaters).

I will post all my predictions on a public dropbox folder here: GPSL2017_Predictions. Zack is also going to keep the latest on the GPSL site.




Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com



From: "Mark Conner mconner1@... [GPSL]" <GPSL-noreply@...>
To: GPSL list <GPSL@...>
Sent: Thursday, June 8, 2017 1:34 PM
Subject: [GPSL] Long-range forecast for Hutchinson for GPSL

 
​At the moment, it looks like pretty nice weather late next week for southern Kansas.  Highs Friday and Saturday should be around 80 and early-morning temps on Saturday around 60.  A cold front will push through sometime early Friday - ahead of the front it will be in the low 90s.  Surface winds would be northerly around 10-15 mph.

As a WAG, landings look to be to the northeast, maybe around Hillsboro.  Too early to get real specific, and a lot will depend on the timing of the cold front.

73 de Mark N9XTN



Jerry
 

I have been running predictions all week and they have all been heading NE.  I expected to see that and the 1800Z run was due south.  So that confused me.  I am guessing the front you talked about is causing wide swings in the forecast.
 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com



From: Mark Conner <mconner1@...>
To: Jerry Gable
Cc: GPSL list
Sent: Thursday, June 8, 2017 5:25 PM
Subject: Re: [GPSL] Long-range forecast for Hutchinson for GPSL

It was the 1200Z forecast I was looking at too.  I didn't compare earlier runs (probably should have) to see if that forecast of 60 on Saturday morning was a one-off or consistent.

- Mark

On Thu, Jun 8, 2017 at 7:17 PM, Jerry Gable <jerrygable@...> wrote:
I was going to start running predictions today but as Mark says, It is still too early.  As an experiment ran a prediction using each of the 4 forecast runs (00:00H, 06:00H, 12:00H, 18:00H).  They were all radically different directions.  The 12:00 forecast matched Mark's prediction.  The others were radically different.

About all we can say at this point is the balloons will probably go up and they will probably come down somewhere in Kansas (Except the floaters).

I will post all my predictions on a public dropbox folder here: GPSL2017_Predictions. Zack is also going to keep the latest on the GPSL site.




Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com



From: "Mark Conner mconner1@... [GPSL]" <GPSL-noreply@...>
To: GPSL list <GPSL@...>
Sent: Thursday, June 8, 2017 1:34 PM
Subject: [GPSL] Long-range forecast for Hutchinson for GPSL

 
​At the moment, it looks like pretty nice weather late next week for southern Kansas.  Highs Friday and Saturday should be around 80 and early-morning temps on Saturday around 60.  A cold front will push through sometime early Friday - ahead of the front it will be in the low 90s.  Surface winds would be northerly around 10-15 mph.

As a WAG, landings look to be to the northeast, maybe around Hillsboro.  Too early to get real specific, and a lot will depend on the timing of the cold front.

73 de Mark N9XTN