Date   

Re: Congratulations to everyone on another great GPSL

L. Paul Verhage KD4STH
 

Next year is Idaho. Will that make it easier to attend?


On Jun 17, 2017 9:10 PM, "Bruce Coates bruce.coates@... [GPSL]" <GPSL-noreply@...> wrote:


I had a great time watching vicariiusly from Saskatoon.  We hope to be able to join you in one of the future ones.

73, Bruce and Leigh - VE5BNC & VE5LEE




Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tab® S



Congratulations to everyone on another great GPSL

Bruce Coates
 

I had a great time watching vicariiusly from Saskatoon.  We hope to be able to join you in one of the future ones.

73, Bruce and Leigh - VE5BNC & VE5LEE




Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tab® S


Re: Flight/Prediction Correlations

Bill Brown
 

Here's the prediction I did via the Habhub predictor the night before the flight for the KD4STH-13 and WB8ELK-11 balloon. It was 6 km south of the actual landing but right on the money in the east-west position.

- Bill WB8ELK

I'm wondering how accurate the upper level winds are (above 86,000 feet). That might make a difference due the westward track in the stratosphere.




-----Original Message-----
From: Jerry Gable jerrygable@... [GPSL]
To: GPSL List ; Mark Conner
Sent: Sat, Jun 17, 2017 7:26 pm
Subject: [GPSL] Flight/Prediction Correlations

 
I am still trying to figure out how to do a better prediction.  To that end, I grabbed 5 of today's flights from aprs.fi & findu.com.  I imported them into my too and had it extract the details from the data.  Using that data I then ran a prediction using that data.  This created a prediction that should have all the ascent, descent, and burst errors removed.

Below is the basic info from this.  You can see the screen capture from this here. The csv files are there as  well if you want to play with them.

I don't see a pattern to the errors.  Most predictions were long but one came up came up 11 miles short.

If you see anything that might help reduce the error, please let me know.  About the only thing I can see would be to create a tool that corrects the prediction while the balloon is in flight.  I don't know if anyone would be interested in a new tool that does that or not.  Of course it would have to work offline if r equired.

Weather used: 2017061706  This forecast will be available for a few weeks if you want to rerun any of this.

Here are the basic info:
Callsign: N9XTN-11
    Burst: 98976 Feet
    Ascent: 873 F/M
    Descent: 998 F/M
    Error Distance: 3.55 Miles
    Prediction was Long
   
Callsign: N5XUL-11
    Burst: 96880 Feet
    Ascent: 640 F/M
    Descent: 1345 F/M
    Error Distance: 10.77 Miles
    Prediction was Short

Callsign: KE0BMV-11
    Burst: 98559 Feet
    Ascent: 733 F/M
    Descent: 1330 F/M
    Error Distance: 3.52 Miles    Prediction was too far south

Callsign: KD4STH-13
    Burst: 103966 Feet
    Ascent: 1090 F/M
    Descent: 896 F/M
    Error Distance: 7.93 Miles
    Prediction was Long

Callsign: KD4STH-7
    Burst: 96890 Feet
    Ascent: 1136 F/M
    Descent: 699 F/M
    Error Distance: 6.15 Miles
    Prediction was Long




 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


Flight/Prediction Correlations

Jerry
 

I am still trying to figure out how to do a better prediction.  To that end, I grabbed 5 of today's flights from aprs.fi & findu.com.  I imported them into my too and had it extract the details from the data.  Using that data I then ran a prediction using that data.  This created a prediction that should have all the ascent, descent, and burst errors removed.

Below is the basic info from this.  You can see the screen capture from this here. The csv files are there as  well if you want to play with them.

I don't see a pattern to the errors.  Most predictions were long but one came up came up 11 miles short.

If you see anything that might help reduce the error, please let me know.  About the only thing I can see would be to create a tool that corrects the prediction while the balloon is in flight.  I don't know if anyone would be interested in a new tool that does that or not.  Of course it would have to work offline if required.

Weather used: 2017061706  This forecast will be available for a few weeks if you want to rerun any of this.

Here are the basic info:
Callsign: N9XTN-11
    Burst: 98976 Feet
    Ascent: 873 F/M
    Descent: 998 F/M
    Error Distance: 3.55 Miles
    Prediction was Long
   
Callsign: N5XUL-11
    Burst: 96880 Feet
    Ascent: 640 F/M
    Descent: 1345 F/M
    Error Distance: 10.77 Miles
    Prediction was Short

Callsign: KE0BMV-11
    Burst: 98559 Feet
    Ascent: 733 F/M
    Descent: 1330 F/M
    Error Distance: 3.52 Miles
    Prediction was too far south

Callsign: KD4STH-13
    Burst: 103966 Feet
    Ascent: 1090 F/M
    Descent: 896 F/M
    Error Distance: 7.93 Miles
    Prediction was Long

Callsign: KD4STH-7
    Burst: 96890 Feet
    Ascent: 1136 F/M
    Descent: 699 F/M
    Error Distance: 6.15 Miles
    Prediction was Long




 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


Re: GPSL 2017 Saturday morning predictions [2 Attachments]

Jeff Ducklow
 

Jerry -

Thank you for setting up the link to APRS.fi to watch all the GPSL balloon flights this morning.  It was great to just click this link and ‘watch’ the flights.  I was mentally cheering for all the flights.  I am sorry that I could not be at GPSL this weekend, but felt connected this morning by watching the flights on my laptop.  I hope recovery was successful for all.

Jeff Ducklow
Mayberry Galactic 
Maple Grove, MN
N0NQN



On Jun 17, 2017, at 6:30 AM, Jerry Gable jerrygable@... [GPSL] <GPSL-noreply@...> wrote:

[Attachment(s) from Jerry Gable included below]

And here is the final Prediction.  Not much has changed in the last 24 hours.

As always, you can get the big versions of all of the predictions here: GPSL 2017 Predictions

For those of you watching at home, here is a link to APRS.FI with the 90K burst, 850FPM ascent as an overlay. It also has all the callsigns for the balloons that were listed.
APRS.fi with prediction and callsigns
The ballons show up all over the US but should move to Hutchinson as the trackers are turned on.



 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com



GPSL 2017 Saturday morning predictions

Jerry
 

And here is the final Prediction.  Not much has changed in the last 24 hours.

As always, you can get the big versions of all of the predictions here: GPSL 2017 Predictions

For those of you watching at home, here is a link to APRS.FI with the 90K burst, 850FPM ascent as an overlay. It also has all the callsigns for the balloons that were listed.
APRS.fi with prediction and callsigns
The ballons show up all over the US but should move to Hutchinson as the trackers are turned on.



 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


Severe weather to the east tomorrow

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

For those of you heading home to the northeast tomorrow, there is an 'enhanced risk' area of severe weather expected to extend from near Topeka through KC towards Chicago.  Timing would be after 3pm, with the area moving ESE through the day.  The southwest end of this area would be near Hutchinson after 6pm or so.  Farther south and west from here the atmosphere will be capped with few or no storms.

73 de Mark N9XTN


Friday PM prediction

Jerry
 

Here is the Friday PM prediction.  Looks about the same as this morning's prediction.  One thing to note is the habhub prediction is showing up a little shorter than the S3 Research ones.  Keep this in mind when planning your flight.

Here is the link to all the predictions: dropbox predictions

I will do a last prediction tomorrow morning and export one of the more likely paths to APRS.fi along with all of the balloon callsigns so those of you at home can follow along.


 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


18Z predictions

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

FYI, the 18Z predicts are very similar to the 12Z ones shown this afternoon.  12Z attached here.

73 de Mark N9XTN




Descent rate calculation

Jerry
 


Someone asked how descent rate is calculated.  The comments in the code (javascript) below show the calculation.

This is part of the worker.js file that does all the wind download and calculations if you are really interested.

Finally, here is a link to my presentation if you want to check out the links in it: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/9446302/gpslPresentation/Presentation.pptx


// For the decent we need to calculate the descent rate at the various zones. // the formula for velocity is // V = sqrt((2*m*g)/(d*a*c)) // V = velocity in m/s // m = mass in Kg // g = gravity // d = Air density Kg/m^3 // a = area // c = drag coefficient // since everything is constant except d and V this reduces to // V = 1/SQRT(d) * velConstant. // since we are given the velocity at sea level we can calc. velConstant from // velConstant = V/SQRT(d) // density (d) at sea level is 1.225 kg/m^3 var velConstant = currentPrediction.descentRate * Math.sqrt(1.225); // This is the altitude entered for the TD alt var TDTargetAlt = currentPrediction.TDTargetAlt; // a couple of variables needed to get the ground alt. from google var tmpWaypoints = new Array(); var TDLocs = []; // array of latLng passed to googlr to get the altitudes // time for the descent calculation var looplimit = 0; while (current.alt > TDTargetAlt && looplimit < 50000) { looplimit++; // get the weather info on the current WP var WPInfo = getWPInfo(current.secs, current.lat, current.lng, current.alt); var descRate = 1 / Math.sqrt(WPInfo.density) * velConstant; var zoneSeconds = (current.alt - TDTargetAlt) / descRate; if (zoneSeconds > 15) { // set the zone to 15 seconds zoneSeconds = 15; targetAlt = current.alt - (zoneSeconds * descRate); } else { targetAlt = TDTargetAlt; }

 


Re: GPSL 2017 is underway - Hutch airport will be launch site

Alan Adamson
 

Mark, thanks for the *live* updates 😊… maybe before the event ends.  HIRFW-6 will have made 9 months aloft.  It already returned from the Moon in equivalent distance travelled 😊… I guess I need to submit -3 for the record books, it made it 9+ months.  Kinda waiting to see what -6 does at similar timing, but it’s headed to Singapore going to the wrong direction and towards the equator (not a good place for a lowly balloon to be this time of year!).

 

Keep it coming!

Alan

 

From: GPSL@... [mailto:GPSL@...] On Behalf Of Mark Conner mconner1@... [GPSL]
Sent: Friday, June 16, 2017 10:26 AM
To: GPSL list
Subject: [GPSL] GPSL 2017 is underway - Hutch airport will be launch site

 

 

Jim KC0RPS is our first speaker.  More updates at http://twitter.com/N9XTN.

 

73 de Mark N9XTN

 


GPSL 2017 is underway - Hutch airport will be launch site

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

Jim KC0RPS is our first speaker.  More updates at http://twitter.com/N9XTN.

73 de Mark N9XTN



Flight Predictions for tomorrow

Jerry
 

This morning all flights will land beyond Newton.  Even the 1100FPM ascent/descent clears newton by about 10 miles.

I added a 120K, 450FPM flight to see what we get with a high but slow flight.


 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


Current radar

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

Red boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.  Storm motion is ESE now, but should turn more SE or even SSE with time.  60 mph winds and up to 1" hail in stronger cores.  

Just arrived at the hotel, will see everyone at the restaurant at 6.

73 de Mark N9XTN



Spare beeper?

Michael Hojnowski
 

Hey gang, when I packed up my payload to bring it to Kansas I apparently forgot to pack my little payload beeper. If anybody has a small beeper that'll run on 3 to 5 volts that I could borrow for the launch I'd appreciate it. I've tried to look for Radio Shacks along the Route but they're all closed.

Also, beside that beeper on my desk I think I left a small toggle switch. That's not as important but if you had one of those that would be great too!

If you have either or both please look me up. I should be at the gathering this evening for dinner :-)

Mike 


Another Thursday Prediction

Jerry
 

All,

Zack asked to see another prediction with some higher burst but slower ascent rates.

You can see a bigger copy of this here: High & Slow

This is using the 1200Z forecast so the path is slightly farther to the south.  That should keep us out of Newton a little better.

I used 120K for the top burst and 450FPM up and down.  If someone has the misfortune of bursting at 60K with the slow ascent they will be driving almost 100 miles to recover.

Of course all of these are to give you a window.  I always recommend you run your own prediction with your expected corner cases.


 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


Briefing for storms today & tonight along with dangerous heat indices

Zack Clobes W0ZC
 

This is a forward from our local emergency management.  As Mark said, there's a chance of storms this afternoon, although it appears Hutch's exposure is going to be fairly limited to just the late afternoon.  Saturday is going to be HOT.

Zack


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Todd Strain <todd.strain@...>
Date: Thu, Jun 15, 2017 at 7:58 AM
Subject: Briefing for storms today & tonight along with dangerous heat indices
To:


 

Attached is a briefing packet regarding severe storm chances this afternoon and evening along with dangerous heat info for today through Sat.

Todd

 

Confidentiality Notice: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed, and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law and HIPAA compliance. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.


GPSL 2017 Flight Predictions

Jerry
 

Looks like today's prediction shows the balloons landing in Newton or just beyond.

All the predictions are be available here: GPSL2017 Predictions as well as on the superlaunch.org site.



Primary


Secondary

 
Jerry Gable
Balloon Flight Prediction tools
http://www.s3research.com


GPSL weather

Mark Conner N9XTN
 

Not much change for surface conditions, except that SPC is increasing the risk of large hail with the thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with the highest risk centered on the Hutchinson area.  Friday afternoon should be in the mid 90s and it could be close to 100 on Saturday with very uncomfortable humidity.  A cold front will pass through Saturday night bringing more storms but cooler conditions for Sunday.

Launch conditions Saturday: Winds from the south at 5 mph, temps in the mid 70s, scattered clouds.  

Tracks are shifting eastward now, with a nominal 100 kft flight landing a few miles southwest of Newton if launched from the Hutch airport.

73 de Mark N9XTN


Welcome to Hutchinson!

Zack Clobes W0ZC
 

All of the preparations are in place for a great weekend of fun and education.  I saw Harry show up on APRS tonight, so I think the festivities have officially begun!

Tomorrow, the Cosmosphere Hall of Space is open for GPSL  attendees throughout the day.  The tour at the Training Center begins at 3:00.  It is about 25 minutes south of Hutchinson, so please plan accordingly.

Friday, the doors will open at 8:30 at the Cosmosphere, and presentations will start at 9:00.  There will be coffee, scones, and fruit available in the morning.  


I'm waiting to see tomorrow's forecast, but I'm leaning pretty heavily towards a Hutch launch on Saturday morning.  


I'm looking forward to see everyone again!


Zack