Re: KF4ZTI 11 latex floater now over Tulsa OK


Bill Brown
 

Hi Mark,

  I also had it in the general area you calculated using similar estimates but thought it might be a bit south of the next road to the north and east of the north south road.

  I predicted it between a spot north of where the north-south road makes a big curve (N3380 and 885) on up to the next E-W road (Rd. 880) and just to the east of the N-S road (Rd N 3380).

- Bill WB8ELK




-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Conner N9XTN <mconner1@...>
To: GPSL@groups.io
Sent: Wed, Jun 17, 2020 3:38 pm
Subject: Re: [GPSL] KF4ZTI 11 latex floater now over Tulsa OK

Just for fun, I pulled the expected wind profile for the landing site for below 10,000 ft:
 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
 HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S
 E = Estimated Surface Height

  984.   302.E  31.0   16.5   187.5     6.1
  983.   312.E  30.0   15.5   187.4     5.9
  980.   339.E  29.3   15.4   187.1     6.9
  975.   388.E  28.7   14.8   186.0     7.4
  967.   462.E  27.9   14.1   186.1     7.8
  953.   589.E  26.5   12.9   185.0     8.3
  935.   758.E  25.0   11.5   185.0     8.7
  915.   947.E  23.2   10.8   184.2     9.1
  891.  1172.E  21.1   10.0   184.4     9.2
  867.  1405.E  19.3    5.2   185.1     9.2
  840.  1676.E  17.2    4.5   183.7     8.4
  810.  1990.E  15.8   -1.4   163.6     5.8
  776.  2347.E  14.6   -6.4   127.9     4.6
  740.  2742.E  11.9   -6.4   107.7     5.7
  702.  3179.E   8.7   -4.5    91.4     7.4
 
Not a lot of direction change below the last report, so I think Harry's assumption on course was good.  However, assuming a 700 fpm descent rate based on the last two reports and about 4000 ft from last report to touchdown, that yields about 345 seconds of flying, and at 7 meters/sec that would put the balloon about 2.4 km NNE of the last report.  That would put it to the north of "Dan" in the KML file, north of the next E/W road to the north a bit.  That doesn't agree with Rich's DF results though.
Anyway, if you're planning an aerial search, I think it'd be worth a look another 1/2 to 3/4 mile north to NNE of "Pred3".
73 de Mark N9XTN

On Wed, Jun 17, 2020 at 2:50 PM Harry M <hhm_74115@...> wrote:
I've attached a KML file with the last 3 known positions and my 3 predicted positions.
A placemark where Dan K5SEL heard it and 2 placemark where Rich KD5JXU heard it.
From RICH1 it was East and from RICH2 it was West.

Rich might have a chance to go Aeromobile this weekend and scope out the area.

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