On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 8:46 PM, 'Acton Rand ' actonrf@...
> Is there a way to predict landfall on the west coast, I am more than happy
> to fire up the Pi TNC and throw the antenna on the balcony 24/7.
Sure there is... just get an extremely accurate upper air wind model,
merge that with a super accurate weather prediction, determine exactly
how the balloon and payload are going to survive, place in a brown
paper bag, and give it a really good shake.
There are wind prediction sites out there, one of which I have posted
links to numerous times over the past couple days. Have you looked at
it? You can get an idea of where the winds are blowing. Just watch
where the lines go. Of course you need to keep looking at each new
predicition as you advance the time frame...
Weather could drop the payload into the Pacific well before landfall.
There are far too many variables involved, and the prediction
timeframe is too long to be able to make much more than a WAG at where
(or even whether) the payload will make landfall. If you are looking
to have someone say, "Turn on your radio at 4:32 am on July 23, and
you'll hear the payload.", you're not going to get that.
If you want the best chance of hearing the payload when it makes
landfall, turn on your receiver now. Of course, there are already
hundreds of stations out there listening for the payload already. If
you are located somewhere that there's no APRS network, then adding
your receiver to the local area will not only help listen for M0XER-4,
but any other APRS users in the area.
You can also run predictions on predict.habhub.org... just put an
extremely slow descent rate into the predictor.
Here's one I just ran.
Because the predict engine can't run on past data, I had to run on
future winds. This puts the payload running back down the Japanese
coast (which we know it's not doing), and then finally across the
Pacific, teasing the west coast of the USA before looking to start
making landfall on Vancouver Island.
Here's one I like even better!
That one should end up flying right over my house!