POLITICS ELECTIONS AND ELECTION CAMPAIGNS: CANDIDATES : UNITED STATES: POLITICS: POLITICAL PARTIES: REPUBLICAN PARTY, TEA PARTY : INDUSTRIES: PETROLEUM : LIBERTARIANISM : RACISM : BIGOTRY : EXTREMISM : HATE GROUPS : INTOLERANCE : WAR ON WOMEN : WAR ON IMMIGRANTS : PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: NAMED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: TED CRUZ, DONALD TRUMP: Why Republicans are Very, Very Likely to Lose the Presidency in 2016

David P. Dillard
 

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POLITICS ELECTIONS AND ELECTION CAMPAIGNS: CANDIDATES :

UNITED STATES: POLITICS: POLITICAL PARTIES: REPUBLICAN PARTY, TEA PARTY :

INDUSTRIES: PETROLEUM :

LIBERTARIANISM :

RACISM :

BIGOTRY :

EXTREMISM :

HATE GROUPS :

INTOLERANCE :

WAR ON WOMEN :

WAR ON IMMIGRANTS :

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES:
NAMED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: TED CRUZ, DONALD TRUMP:

Why Republicans are Very, Very Likely to Lose the Presidency in 2016

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Why Republicans are Very, Very Likely to Lose the Presidency in 2016

Updated by Lee Drutman

April 5, 2016, 2:30 p.m. ET

Vox

http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2016/4/5/11370102/republicans-lose-2016

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Every now and then in American politics, political parties enter their presidential nominating conventions deeply, deeply divided. And when they are deeply divided, they lose.

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Conventions, rather than being coronations, turn into battles between rival factions, each with a legitimate hope that it will somehow come away from the convention with its candidate as the nominee. But in the end, the party can only choose one nominee, and thus only one faction can win. That means the other faction goes home dejected and angry. Some of them will vote for another candidate. Some won't vote at all.

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This is the Republicans' problem in 2016. At this point in the game, it's increasingly clear the Republican's July convention will be a barnburner of fights to rival the most bitter of conventions, with wounds that will probably take years, not months or weeks, to heal. And whomever the delegates ultimately choose, there is no consensus candidate left. The divisions have grown too deep.

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What history tells us: Divided conventions produce general election losers

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Depending on how you count it, since 1900 one party has been much more deeply divided than the other party between seven and 10 times. In a few of those years, both parties were at least somewhat divided. But in all 10 elections, the party that was more deeply split lost the general election.

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Each election is obviously different. But looking across the elections, two general patterns emerge.

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First, an internal fight is almost always a sign of deeper party weakness. Fights emerge either because the party is deeply split between two or more internal factions or because the leading nominee (sometimes the incumbent) is already weakened, and others see an opportunity. Either way, it's bad news for that party in the general election.

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Second, conventions don't heal divisions. In the bitter fight over the nomination, nobody comes out looking particularly good. If one faction wins, the other loses. And that means voters who are so angry and disappointed that they're either going to stay home or vote for a third party (divided major parties often invite third-party opportunists). They might even vote for the opposing party.

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Maybe history will be different this time. But it seems unlikely.

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The complete article may be read at the URL above.

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Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
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