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FW: [! Wed, Jan. 8th - 4 PM Update !] Potential for Severe Weather this Weekend

Buzz Kutcher - K3GWK
 
Edited

Weekend WX Update…

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

From: Jason Deese - NOAA Federal
Sent: Wednesday, January 8, 2020 3:23 PM
Subject: [! Wed, Jan. 8th - 4 PM Update !] Potential for Severe Weather this Weekend

 

Good Afternoon Partners, 

The threat for severe weather across the area on Saturday continues to increase. We will be looking for a line of severe thunderstorms to move across the area Saturday afternoon through the evening time period. 

 

What's Changed:

·  Due to the elevate severe potential, we will be doing a GoToWebinar for this event. For those registered, please look for an email with login instructions. For those not registered, we will be posting a video of the briefing shortly afterwards and emailing to everyone.

·  Little change in overall thinking, though continued increased confidence in the severe threat given the persistence of the 15% zone across the western half of the area and inclusion of a 30% zone farther west of the area. We did update the graphics below however.

Main Takeaways:

·  For now the greater chance of severe storms looks to be across the western half of the north and central Georgia Saturday (Jan. 11) afternoon into evening (see graphic below from the Storm Prediction Center). 

o Main hazards are strong, damaging winds and tornadoes

o All of north and central Georgia should continue to monitor the weather as this outlook is expected to change

·  Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible Friday through Saturday night with the heaviest amounts likely Saturday afternoon into evening (see graphic below on forecast totals). 

o Isolated flooding, ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas, and flooding of creeks and streams is possible. 

Graphics:  

 

Severe Weather Outlook (Saturday) 

Forecast Rainfall Amounts (Friday Morning through Sunday Morning)  ***subject to change***  

 

Model Evolution as line moves into the Metro Saturday Afternoon

 

We will have our regularly scheduled briefing on Thursday at 1PM utilizing GoTo Webinar. We will begin doing an email update tomorrow as well.

 

If you have any immediate questions or concerns, please feel free to contact us via NWSChat (ffcchat), email (sr-ffc.mets@...) or by phone -- 770-486-1133 (ext. 241 or 242).  

 

Thanks,
NWS Peachtree City/Atlanta Decision Support Team

 

Ken Wallis - KM4HOS
 

Thx for the heads-up Buzz.

-----------------------------------------

From: "Buzz Kutcher - K3GWK"
To: "BC-ARES@groups.io"
Cc:
Sent: Wednesday January 8 2020 3:53:29PM
Subject: [BC-ARES] FW: [! Wed, Jan. 8th - 4 PM Update !] Potential for Severe Weather this Weekend

Weekend WX Update…

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

From: Jason Deese - NOAA Federal
Sent: Wednesday, January 8, 2020 3:23 PM
Subject: [! Wed, Jan. 8th - 4 PM Update !] Potential for Severe Weather this Weekend

 

Good Afternoon Partners, 

The threat for severe weather across the area on Saturday continues to increase. We will be looking for a line of severe thunderstorms to move across the area Saturday afternoon through the evening time period. 

 

What's Changed:

<![if !supportLists]>·  <![endif]>Due to the elevate severe potential, we will be doing a GoToWebinar for this event. For those registered, please look for an email with login instructions. For those not registered, we will be posting a video of the briefing shortly afterwards and emailing to everyone.

<![if !supportLists]>·  <![endif]>Little change in overall thinking, though continued increased confidence in the severe threat given the persistence of the 15% zone across the western half of the area and inclusion of a 30% zone farther west of the area. We did update the graphics below however.

Main Takeaways:

<![if !supportLists]>·  <![endif]>For now the greater chance of severe storms looks to be across the western half of the north and central Georgia Saturday (Jan. 11) afternoon into evening (see graphic below from the Storm Prediction Center). 

<![if !supportLists]>o <![endif]>Main hazards are strong, damaging winds and tornadoes

<![if !supportLists]>o <![endif]>All of north and central Georgia should continue to monitor the weather as this outlook is expected to change

<![if !supportLists]>·  <![endif]>Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible Friday through Saturday night with the heaviest amounts likely Saturday afternoon into evening (see graphic below on forecast totals). 

<![if !supportLists]>o <![endif]>Isolated flooding, ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas, and flooding of creeks and streams is possible. 

Graphics:  

image

 

Severe Weather Outlook (Saturday) 

image

Forecast Rainfall Amounts (Friday Morning through Sunday Morning)  ***subject to change***  

image

 

Model Evolution as line moves into the Metro Saturday Afternoon

image

 

We will have our regularly scheduled briefing on Thursday at 1PM utilizing GoTo Webinar. We will begin doing an email update tomorrow as well.

 

If you have any immediate questions or concerns, please feel free to contact us via NWSChat (ffcchat), email (sr-ffc.mets@...) or by phone -- 770-486-1133 (ext. 241 or 242).  

 

Thanks,
NWS Peachtree City/Atlanta Decision Support Team